{"id":159,"date":"2026-06-03T19:14:01","date_gmt":"2026-06-03T19:14:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/americanindustryreview.com\/?p=159"},"modified":"2026-06-03T19:14:01","modified_gmt":"2026-06-03T19:14:01","slug":"cornyns-loss-proves-election-rules-still-apply","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/americanindustryreview.com\/?p=159","title":{"rendered":"Cornyn\u2019s loss proves election rules still apply"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

ANALYSIS \u2014After Donald Trump\u2019s election in 2016, there was a narrative that the typical rules about elections were extinct. But Texas Sen. John Cornyn\u2019s recent fate has proved that many of the political laws of gravity still apply.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Read more Congress finds a unifying issue \u2014 geothermal energy<\/a><\/p>\n

Last fall, national Republicans were excited that Cornyn had closed the initial gap between himself and state Attorney General Ken Paxton in the Republican primary. But, as I wrote in October for Roll Call, there still should have been plenty of concern around the senator\u2019s reelection prospects.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cDespite being in office for more than two decades and benefiting from millions of dollars in positive TV ads, the senator\u2019s support among GOP primary voters has improved only at a glacial pace. While Paxton\u2019s initial lead has dissipated, Cornyn\u2019s vote share has not improved dramatically, even according to data from allies,\u201d I wrote. \u201cEven if Cornyn secures a spot in the runoff, he\u2019s back to the fundamental challenge of needing to boost his standing to win.\u201d<\/p>\n

That\u2019s exactly what happened.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Cornyn\u2019s first-place finish in the March 3 primary was a mirage. His 42 percent was narrowly ahead of Paxton (40.5 percent) and Rep. Wesley Hunt (13.5 percent), but right in line with where he\u2019d been polling consistently for months. Cornyn\u2019s support was not dramatically changing and I wrote in February that he was still in significant electoral danger.<\/p>\n

What\u2019s remarkable is that the GOP poll that kicked off the Cornyn panic was stunningly similar to the final runoff result. In spring of 2025, the pro-Cornyn Senate Leadership Fund released an April 27-May 1 survey which showed the senator trailing Paxton 56-40 percent. Almost a full year later, Paxton defeated Cornyn in the primary runoff, 64-36 percent.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Even though we were told that millions of dollars in friendly spending and the tremendous spending advantage would boost Cornyn\u2019s standing, it simply didn\u2019t work. We were told that there was no comparison between the 2026 race and 2012, when Texas Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst finished ahead of Ted Cruz in the first round of the GOP Senate primary with 45 percent and lost the runoff to Cruz, taking 43 percent.\u00a0<\/p>\n

But that\u2019s almost exactly what happened. After tens of millions of dollars in spending, Cornyn lost support from the initial primary to the runoff. It is fundamentally difficult for longtime incumbents to dramatically change voter opinion about themselves.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Read more An autopsy of the DNC campaign autopsy<\/a><\/p>\n

Cornyn\u2019s performance fell in line with previous senators, including Richard G. Lugar of Indiana and Thad Cochran of Mississippi, who failed to dramatically outperform their preelection primary polling. Cornyn\u2019s polling average according to FiftyPlusOne (41 percent), RealClearPolitics (41 percent), 270toWin (43 percent), DecisionDeskHQ (39 percent) and Race to the White House (39 percent) all pegged Cornyn\u2019s support as slightly higher than his final percentage, but none of them had the senator anywhere near the necessary majority. (Cochran was able to survive because he only had to improve by a couple of points to win.)<\/p>\n

While fundraising is important, the Texas Senate primary shows that the candidate with the most money doesn\u2019t always win, particularly when there are prevailing political conditions working against a candidate. In this case, Cornyn had fallen too far out of favor with the most influential person in his party (Trump) and was running against a candidate more in line with the temperament of the primary voters.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Looking ahead, Texas was on the Senate battleground before and after the primary result. The state is competitive more because of Trump\u2019s weak political position nationwide than because of Paxton being the nominee.\u00a0<\/p>\n

But a key difference will be the necessary spending. Paxton is a fundamentally weaker fundraiser than Cornyn and will need outside help to compete with Democrat James Talarico\u2019s impressive ability to raise money.\u00a0<\/p>\n

We didn\u2019t change the Inside Elections rating from Likely Republican to something more competitive immediately after the primary because Cornyn\u2019s loss was not a surprise. While some of the conditions are in place for a potential Democratic upset, it\u2019s still not clear Talarico can get over the finish line. As my colleagues Jacob Rubashkin and Bradley Wascher have written, a hypothetical composite of the best-performing Democratic candidates in recent history barely gets a Democrat to victory.\u00a0<\/p>\n

But, at a minimum, Texas is an expensive headache for Republicans and could develop into a more serious problem.<\/p>\n

Read more Bennett will face Kean in high-profile matchup in New Jersey<\/a><\/p>\n

Nathan L. Gonzales is an elections analyst for CQ Roll Call.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

ANALYSIS \u2014After Donald Trump\u2019s election in 2016, there was a narrative that the typical rules about elections were extinct. But Texas Sen. John Cornyn\u2019s recent fate has proved that many of the political laws of gravity still apply.  Last fall, national Republicans were excited that Cornyn had closed the initial gap between himself and state […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":158,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-159","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-campaigns"],"yoast_head":"\nCornyn\u2019s loss proves election rules still apply - American Industry Review<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/americanindustryreview.com\/?p=159\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Cornyn\u2019s loss proves election rules still apply - American Industry Review\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"ANALYSIS \u2014After Donald Trump\u2019s election in 2016, there was a narrative that the typical rules about elections were extinct. 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