{"id":279,"date":"2026-06-11T20:40:29","date_gmt":"2026-06-11T20:40:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/americanindustryreview.com\/?p=279"},"modified":"2026-06-11T20:40:29","modified_gmt":"2026-06-11T20:40:29","slug":"at-the-races-eyes-on-the-ball-and-the-ballot","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/americanindustryreview.com\/?p=279","title":{"rendered":"At the Races: Eyes on the ball and the ballot"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

Welcome to At the Races! Each week we bring you news and analysis from the CQ Roll Call campaign team. Know someone who\u2019d like to get this newsletter? They\u00a0can\u00a0subscribe here<\/em>.<\/p>\n

Read more Bipartisan bill targets government censorship threats<\/a><\/p>\n

By Mary Ellen McIntire and Daniela Altimari<\/strong><\/p>\n

Call it a sports week.<\/p>\n

New Yorkers are ecstatic after the Knicks went up 3-1 over the San Antonio Spurs on Wednesday night, pulling off the largest comeback in NBA Finals history. They\u2019ll look to win their first championship in 53 years on Saturday \u2014 the same day that early voting begins for New York\u2019s primary elections. The likelihood of Knicks-themed GOTV efforts in New York City House primaries seems high.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

At the same time, it\u2019s been a high-scoring Stanley Cup final between the Carolina Hurricanes and the Las Vegas Golden Knights, who are tied 2-2. Both teams are from swing states, but only North Carolina has a Senate race this year. As the Hurricanes look to win their first title since 2006, Democrats are hoping to win a Senate race there for the first time since 2008.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, the U.S. men\u2019s national soccer team\u2019s path out of the World Cup group stage runs through California, where they kick off play tomorrow against Paraguay and will return later in the month to face Turkey. More House matchups were set in California this week, including a battleground contest between GOP Rep. David Valadao and local school board trustee Randy Villegas, who defeated a fellow Democrat backed by the DCCC.\u00a0<\/p>\n

In Texas, Democratic Senate nominee James Talarico has announced a six-figure ad campaign campaign in Spanish that\u2019s set to run statewide on Telemundo during World Cup group stage games for both the U.S. and Mexican teams.<\/p>\n

Members of Congress have even gotten in on the sporting action, with Republicans securing their sixth consecutive victory in the Congressional Baseball Game for charity on Wednesday night. Republican Sen. Eric Schmitt of Missouri even made it on \u201cSportsCenter\u201d for an impressive diving catch.<\/p>\n

Republicans\u2019 odds to extend their winning streak next year look good, given former New York Yankee Mark Teixeira is poised to succeed outgoing Rep. Chip Roy in Texas\u2019 deep-red 21st District.<\/p>\n

But the Democratic coach, Rep. Linda T. S\u00e1nchez of California, told Roll Call\u2019s Hunter Savery that Democrats would have the last laugh.<\/p>\n

\u201cThere\u2019s going to be such a big wave in November, and the Republicans may not even have enough players to field the team,\u201d she said. \u201cSo I\u2019m not worried about Teixeira, because he can\u2019t play every single position.\u201d<\/p>\n

Relatively few members who played in the Congressional Baseball Game are in battleground races, however, according to Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales. Just four Republican players are in races Inside Elections deems competitive, while Iowa\u2019s Sen. Joni Ernst and Rep. Randy Feenstra won\u2019t be returning next year. In the other dugout, six Democratic players represent competitive districts.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

Washington\u2019s sports buzz continues this weekend, with a UFC fight to commemorate the nation\u2019s 250th anniversary set for Sunday, Donald Trump\u2019s 80th birthday, at the White House.<\/p>\n

Starting gate<\/h2>\n

Primary concerns: <\/strong>Trump has been dogged by flagging poll numbers and asserted recently that he doesn\u2019t care about the midterms. But his endorsement still matters in GOP primaries. On Tuesday, Trump-backed House candidates notched wins in South Carolina, Nevada and North Dakota. And South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham overcame a primary challenge from a conservative insurgent.<\/p>\n

More primary colors:<\/strong> South Carolina Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette, Trump\u2019s pick for governor of the Palmetto State, came in first in the gubernatorial primary. She did not, however, secure the majority needed to avoid a June 23 runoff, when she\u2019ll take on state Attorney General Alan Wilson. Reps. Ralph Norman and Nancy Mace finished third and fifth, respectively. The wins for Trump\u2019s picks came after a setback last week in Iowa, where his preferred candidate lost the GOP gubernatorial contest.<\/p>\n

#MESEN: <\/strong>Graham Platner officially clinched the Democratic nomination for Senate in Maine, setting up what\u2019s expected to be an expensive and hard-fought campaign against Sen. Susan Collins. While Platner\u2019s progressive allies have urged Democrats to rally around him in an effort to win control of the Senate, a memo from Senate Republicans\u2019 campaign arm urged the party not to be complacent about the Democrat\u2019s controversies and to rush resources to Maine.\u00a0<\/p>\n

New member, new majority margin:<\/strong> California Republican James Gallagher took the oath of office Wednesday after winning a special election last week to fill the seat of the late GOP Rep. Doug LaMalfa. With the addition of Gallagher, the House GOP gets some breathing room in the narrowly divided chamber, with four seats remaining vacant.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Plead the Fifth:<\/strong> ActBlue CEO Regina Wallace-Jones invoked her Fifth Amendment rights while appearing before the House Administration Committee, our colleague Nina Heller reports. The Democratic fundraising platform has long been in the crosshairs of those Republicans who allege widespread fraud in federal elections.<\/p>\n

ICYMI<\/h2>\n

#MISEN:<\/strong> Senate Minority Leader Charles E. Schumer told Punchbowl News that Michigan Rep. Haley Stevens had \u201cthe best chance to win\u201d the state\u2019s Senate race this fall, essentially offering an endorsement in a competitive three-way Democratic primary that also includes state Sen. Mallory McMorrow and former Wayne County public health official Abdul El-Sayed. Schumer\u2019s comments followed a New York Times report that he had privately backed Stevens. The United Democracy Project, the political arm of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, began reserving airtime in Michigan to support Stevens, while other outside groups have also begun spending for other candidates.\u00a0<\/p>\n

#FLGOV<\/strong>: Democratic gubernatorial hopeful David Jolly has picked onetime House colleague Gwen Graham as his running mate. Jolly and Graham, who ran for Florida governor herself in 2018, briefly overlapped in the House together, back when Jolly was a Republican. The announcement came days after Democrat Jerry Demings, the mayor of Orange County and husband of former Rep. Val B. Demings,\u00a0dropped his bid for governor following a prostate cancer diagnosis.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Read more Orthographic glitterati? Press beat politicians at annual spelling bee<\/a><\/p>\n

Endorsements:<\/strong> Michigan Sen. Elissa Slotkin endorsed her former House colleague, Rep. Angie Craig, in Minnesota\u2019s Senate race. In Florida, retiring Rep. Neal Dunn endorsed Bea Valenti, a former adviser to Sen. Ashley Moody, to challenge Democratic Rep. Kathy Castor in a district that Republicans recently made more favorable to them. Valenti also picked up the support of VIEW PAC, which supports conservative women. Former Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney endorsed veteran Cait Conley in New York\u2019s 17th District, a seat he once held. Conley is one of five Democrats vying to challenge GOP Rep. Mike Lawler.\u00a0<\/p>\n

High stakes, big money: <\/strong>Spending on the midterm elections is projected to reach $11.6 billion, according to a new report by AdImpact. The 2026 cycle is expected to surpass the record $8.9 billion set in the 2022 midterms, even topping the $11.2 billion spent during the 2024 presidential cycle. Much of the increase in the current cycle is driven by an increasingly competitive Senate landscape, AdImpact found, though some of that is offset by reductions in House campaign spending, as redistricting has reduced the number of competitive seats.\u00a0<\/p>\n

#FL20:<\/strong> Several Black candidates seeking the Democratic nomination in Florida\u2019s 20th District have discussed consolidating behind a single person to take on Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz, who is seeking the redrawn Black plurality district, which includes a sliver\u00a0of her current district. Friday is the filing deadline to make the ballot in Florida.<\/p>\n

Nathan\u2019s notes<\/h2>\n

We crossed the halfway mark of the 2026 primary season this week, and Roll Call elections analyst Nathan L. Gonzales of Inside Elections shares six takeaways from the intraparty contests in 26 states thus far.\u00a0<\/p>\n

What we\u2019re reading<\/h2>\n

Ad wars: <\/strong>The Democratic group American Bridge is planning a $50 million ad campaign targeting House and Senate races in largely red areas, The New York Times reports. Among their targets is the seat of North Carolina Rep. Richard Hudson, the chair of House Republicans\u2019 campaign arm.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Gottheimer\u2019s next act:<\/strong> New Jersey Rep. Josh Gottheimer fell short in his bid for governor last year. But the centrist Democrat is plotting his next act in the House, emerging as a party leader on artificial intelligence policy and an ally of Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, Politico reports.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Get out the voters:<\/strong> The Pew Research Center has unveiled its latest political typology report, breaking the American electorate into nine distinct groups. While several groups \u201care very ideological, partisan and politically active \u2026 most Americans fall into groups within a large, politically messy center,\u201d Pew reports.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Goodbye to the firebrands:<\/strong> The departure earlier this year of Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene and the impending exits of Reps. Jasmine Crockett, Chip Roy and Mace will leave a \u201ccharacter void on the Hill,\u201d according to The New York Times. But the looming departure of the current crop of attention-seeking pols could create an opportunity for a new class of leaders adept at dominating the news cycle.<\/p>\n

Key race: #OK01<\/h2>\n

Candidates:<\/strong> Markwayne Mullin\u2019s confirmation as Homeland Security secretary set off a chain of events in the Sooner State. Republican Rep. Kevin Hern launched a campaign to succeed Mullin in the Senate, leaving his Tulsa-based 1st District open for the first time since 2018. Tuesday\u2019s primary for the deep-red seat has drawn a crowd of Republicans, including\u00a0pastor Jackson Lahmeyer, who has Trump\u2019s support; businessman Nathan Butterfield; state Rep. Mark Tedford; former congressional aide Jed Cochran; and Kim David, chairman of the Oklahoma Corporation Commission, which regulates public utilities and transportation in the state.<\/p>\n

Why it matters: <\/strong>The rare open seat has led to a free-for-all and whoever wins the GOP primary would be heavily favored to become the district\u2019s next member of Congress. There is, however, a Democrat in the race: Tulsa school board member John Croisant is running on a \u201ccommon sense\u201d platform focused on affordability and strengthening public safety. He does not face a primary opponent.<\/p>\n

Cash dash: <\/strong>Self-funders figure heavily in the race. Tedford is the fundraising leader, reporting\u00a0$1.4 million in receipts by the end of May, with $1.1 million of that in the form of a personal loan. Butterfield\u2019s candidacy is almost exclusively powered by a $1 million loan. Lahmeyer raised about $350,000 through the end of May, $60,000 of which he loaned his campaign.<\/p>\n

Backers:<\/strong>\u00a0In addition to securing the much-coveted Trump endorsement, Lahmeyer has the backing of House GOP leadership and the Club for Growth. Tedford has the support of Oklahoma House Speaker Kyle Hilbert and several other local and state officials. Hern has not publicly endorsed a successor.<\/p>\n

What they\u2019re saying: <\/strong>Lahmeyer told The Oklahoman that he embraces the label Christian nationalist \u2014 \u201cunless it\u2019s coming from the left-wing media.\u201d He founded Pastors for Trump and unsuccessfully challenged Republican Sen. James Lankford in 2022. Tedford has emphasized his experience in government and pro-business conservative credentials, but his opponents have criticized him for missing votes in the Legislature. David, the lone candidate holding statewide office, has highlighted her role as the lead author of a measure allowing for the open-carry of firearms in public and she pledged to \u201cprotect Oklahoma oil and gas jobs \u2026 and keep energy affordable for families.\u201d But a review by The Frontier, a nonpartisan digital news outlet, found that David has not voted against a utility rate increase since taking office in 2023.<\/p>\n

Terrain: <\/strong>Trump carried the district, situated in northeastern Oklahoma, by 22 points in 2024, according to calculations by Inside Elections, which rates the race Solid Republican.<\/p>\n

Wild card:<\/strong> The race presents another test of the power of the Trump endorsement in Republican primaries, following wins last week by the president\u2019s picks in South Carolina, Nevada and South Dakota. But the impact of Trump\u2019s involvement in the Oklahoma contest has already been felt. Dan Rooney, a lieutenant colonel in the Oklahoma Air National Guard, dropped out after Trump backed Lahmeyer, saying on social media, \u201cIt is not congruent with my assignments in life to actively campaign against a candidate endorsed by my Commander in Chief.\u201d<\/p>\n

Coming up<\/h2>\n

Tuesday is runoff day in Alabama and Georgia, with several key primary races to be decided. Also casting ballots Tuesday are voters in Oklahoma and the District of Columbia, while California is hosting a special election for the seat of Democratic former Rep. Eric Swalwell.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Photo finish<\/h2>\n

Subscribe<\/strong>\u00a0now\u00a0using\u00a0this link\u00a0so you don\u2019t miss out on the best news and analysis from our team.<\/p>\n

Read more A data center caused an uproar in Utah. Congress is watching (and waiting)<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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