{"id":309,"date":"2026-06-15T21:41:07","date_gmt":"2026-06-15T21:41:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/americanindustryreview.com\/?p=309"},"modified":"2026-06-15T21:41:07","modified_gmt":"2026-06-15T21:41:07","slug":"inside-john-thunes-arithmetic","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/americanindustryreview.com\/?p=309","title":{"rendered":"Inside John Thune\u2019s arithmetic"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

John Thune is rubbing his jaw, one of his telltale signs he\u2019s tired.<\/p>\n

What should\u2019ve been a week of celebration after muscling through his party\u2019s second budget reconciliation package as Senate majority leader \u2014 nearly a year and a half into his tenure \u2014 was instead spent navigating hurdles set by the other end of Pennsylvania Avenue.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Read more Reconciliation 3.0 hurdles<\/a><\/p>\n

\u201cThere are a lot of things you just don\u2019t control, and timing of White House announcements is one of them,\u201d Thune, 65, said Thursday afternoon, as he settled into a plush chair in the Republican leader\u2019s suite in the Capitol.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s becoming something of a pattern from the White House, complicating a careful leadership calculus for Thune.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Just minutes before the South Dakotan sat down for an interview, President Donald Trump had just thrown another obstacle his way: his announcement of Jay Clayton as nominee for director of national intelligence.<\/p>\n

It wasn\u2019t Trump\u2019s pick, but the timing; that announcement came just as the Senate was leaving town, and hours after the House had finished votes for the week. Had it come earlier, it might\u2019ve provided a window to help congressional Republicans extend a key spy powers authority as its expiration loomed.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Thune told reporters in the hall that he \u201chadn\u2019t heard\u201d ahead of the president posting it on Truth Social, adding later in his office he hadn\u2019t spoken with the president in a few days. He also hadn\u2019t attended a White House bill signing event the day before to tout the reconciliation bill. Instead, he spent the week dealing with the spy powers saga.<\/p>\n

Things could have been a whole lot simpler had Trump never named the controversial Bill Pulte as acting DNI earlier this month, leading Democrats to back away from a bipartisan reauthorization of what\u2019s known as section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act.<\/p>\n

\u201cSome of the things that have happened the last few weeks have completely thrown a wrench into our ability to execute,\u201d Thune acknowledged. \u201cIt has been particularly challenging.\u201d<\/p>\n

Despite that, Thune has largely kept his conference united \u2014 no small feat with his slim 53-47 majority.<\/p>\n

By Thursday afternoon, Senate Republicans had already moved ahead quickly with Trump\u2019s less incendiary pick of Clayton, setting confirmation hearings for this week. That long-suffering resilience from Thune \u2014 paired on the flip side with his willingness to stand firm as a Senate firewall even when it irks the president \u2014 has worked out pretty well for him, at least legislatively speaking.<\/p>\n

His wins include the first rescissions package of its kind signed into law in 30 years, not to mention those two budget reconciliation bills. He successfully shepherded six \u201cvote-a-ramas\u201d this Congress \u2014 an unusually high number \u2014 in which no Democratic amendments were triumphant.<\/p>\n

\u201cFor the most part our members buy into the idea that we are a team. If we\u2019re going to succeed, we\u2019ve got to succeed together, and that means sometimes holding hands and just doing hard things,\u201d Thune said.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Sen. Shelley Moore Capito, a West Virginia Republican who serves in leadership with Thune as chair of the Republican Policy Committee, said he\u2019s \u201ca sports guy, and I think he knows you have to be patient and wait it out to look for your right opportunity.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cHe does reach a point where he\u2019s got to rip the Band-Aid off and go forward. I think he was mystified as to how the White House is kind of injecting into different issues,\u201d Capito added.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Case in point: The administration announced a Department of Justice \u201canti-weaponization fund\u201d last month right as a vote-a-rama was approaching, irritating Republicans enough that Thune was forced to delay it. And Trump primaried Sens. John Cornyn of Texas and Bill Cassidy of Louisiana out of their seats, alienating two very much needed \u201cyes\u201d votes for Thune and the president.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Several of his colleagues cited the rescheduled vote-a-rama as an example of Thune\u2019s balancing act with the White House: He and his whip team had to appease Cassidy on the Senate floor \u2014 the leader regularly rubbing his temples, another one of his telltale signs of stress \u2014 while also hearing from the president more than once during the 18-hour voting spree.<\/p>\n

Still, Thune mostly kept the team together to pass the reconciliation bill. Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski was the sole Republican to oppose the final measure, and Cassidy ended up supporting it, even after an amendment he pushed for fell short.<\/p>\n

\u201cNow even more so with the primaries now behind us, we\u2019ve got a few more free agents \u2014 and a 53-seat majority that\u2019s now more like 46,\u201d Thune said.<\/p>\n

\u2018Arithmetic\u2019<\/h2>\n

There remains one undeniable fact in Thune\u2019s mind: math is math.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Before he was leader, he served as the Republican whip for former Leader Mitch McConnell, where he learned how to \u201csee the whole theater.\u201d He knows that for several of Trump\u2019s demands, the numbers simply aren\u2019t there.\u00a0<\/p>\n

That\u2019s true not only for the GOP\u2019s marquee voter ID and election overhaul bill, known as the SAVE America Act, but also for the White House\u2019s wish to scrap the legislative filibuster to get it through the Senate.<\/p>\n

\u201cHis priorities are going to be to nuke the filibuster, pass the SAVE Act, fire the parliamentarian,\u201d Thune said of Trump. \u201cI\u2019ve indicated to him in most cases \u2014 not all \u2014 that what he wants done, we just don\u2019t have the votes for, and there\u2019s nothing I can do to change that.\u201d<\/p>\n

Asked recently by reporters if he feared Trump could criticize his leadership if he didn\u2019t do what the president wanted, Thune chuckled. \u201cThat could happen,\u201d he replied.<\/p>\n

The voter ID bill in particular keeps stirring up backlash for Thune as online MAGA world presses him to pass it: \u201cObviously, I take fire from all sides.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n

But Cornyn, who told the New York Times his recent loss gives him more \u201cfreedom, and certainly leverage,\u201d has been publicly sparring with Sen. Mike Lee, telling his Republican colleague from Utah to stop blaming Thune for SAVE\u2019s stalling.<\/p>\n

\u201cYou don\u2019t have the votes,\u201d Cornyn posted on X, writing that Thune \u201ccan\u2019t change that.\u201d<\/p>\n

During the recent vote-a-rama, Republicans pushing the legislation couldn\u2019t even muster a GOP show of unity on a SAVE-related amendment. A previous extended debate was essentially abandoned earlier this year as well following lackluster floor time.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Trump\u2019s \u201cgot a passion for it, which I understand,\u201d Thune said, but \u201cit comes down to arithmetic.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n

On Sunday the president tossed up yet another hurdle, posting he\u2019s \u201cagainst FISA if it doesn\u2019t come with The Save America Act (Full version!) firmly attached to it.\u201d<\/p>\n

Read more Fight night: FISA and beyond<\/a><\/p>\n

Reconciliation 3.0?<\/h2>\n

Budget reconciliation is one lever Thune has pulled to get his job done \u2014 first to advance Republicans\u2019 agenda with 1.0, better known as the One Big Beautiful Bill, and then to work around Democrats\u2019 appropriations blockage with a \u201cskinnier\u201d 2.0 package that provided $70 billion to fund immigration enforcement agencies for the rest of Trump\u2019s term.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

Thune is keeping the door cracked open for another such bill that bypasses the Senate\u2019s 60-vote threshold, but pointed to a tight schedule ahead of the midterms and growing skepticism among his conference.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Trump last week called on Republicans to \u201cIMMEDIATELY advance and pass\u201d a $350 billion defense reconciliation bill that \u201cwill include THE SAVE AMERICA ACT as well.\u201d<\/p>\n

Both Senate Appropriations Chair Susan Collins, R-Maine, and McConnell, the Defense subcommittee chairman, had said they don\u2019t believe a third reconciliation bill will happen and the administration shouldn\u2019t rely on it for more defense-related funding.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The \u201cappetite\u201d of the conference depends on the bill\u2019s ingredients, Thune said, adding \u201cthe danger in a recon 3.0 is that it implicates more committees of jurisdiction\u201d and gives Democrats another chance to lob amendments trying to \u201cundo\u201d the GOP\u2019s work so far.<\/p>\n

Most Republicans \u201care willing to support a higher topline number for the military,\u201d he said. \u201cBut whether or not reconciliation is the vehicle to achieve that? I don\u2019t have an answer for that yet.\u201d<\/p>\n

Midterms\u00a0<\/h2>\n

At the center of the defense-boost push is the Pentagon\u2019s quickly depleting munitions stockpile thanks to the war in Iran, which has surged well beyond the 100-day mark.\u00a0<\/p>\n

While a ceasefire deal was announced Sunday by the White House, the conflict has set off sirens for Senate Republicans ahead of the midterms as gas prices remain high and as Trump hemorrhages support from key groups.<\/p>\n

Eight years ago, Trump\u2019s job approval rating created a tough national political environment for Republicans, but they gained two seats in the Senate while losing more than 40 in the House. This time, even if the 2026 Senate map still benefits the GOP, Democrats are growing increasingly bullish.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Senate Democratic Leader Charles E. Schumer, D-N.Y., told Punchbowl News they had \u201cmultiple paths\u201d back to power, citing Texas as an unexpected boon after Trump endorsed the scandal-plagued Ken Paxton over Cornyn.<\/p>\n

Thune and the National Republican Senatorial Committee had hoped to avoid such intra-party drama \u2014 pleas that went ignored as the president has continued to put his finger on the political scale.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cThis is not a normal political environment, and there\u2019s a lot of anger out there,\u201d Thune admitted. \u201cI don\u2019t think this is the kind of year, Democrat or Republican, where you\u2019re going to be able to win an election by trying to get people to have a warm, fuzzy feeling about you.\u201d<\/p>\n

Still, as Republican candidates get out on the campaign trail this summer, Thune is hoping to refocus on the \u201cOne Big Beautiful\u201d law \u2014 now branded as the Working Families Tax Cuts \u2014 and other legislative feats.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe have quality candidates. We have, I think, a record of accomplishment that we can run on that\u2019s pretty compelling,\u201d Thune said.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cThere\u2019s something coming out of the White House on a daily basis that keeps life interesting,\u201d he added. \u201cWhen you\u2019ve got a cycle where you\u2019re facing not only political headwinds [but] some economic headwinds \u2026 you have to be adaptable.\u201d<\/p>\n

That\u2019s a lesson he keeps returning to \u2014 there are \u201cthings you can\u2019t control.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u2018Coach or point guard\u2019\u00a0<\/h2>\n

Thune doesn\u2019t necessarily relish holding the blame stick in the eyes of MAGA influencers, but he also doesn\u2019t mind it: \u201cSometimes they\u2019re mad at the president, sometimes they\u2019re mad at the Congress, and I obviously generate a lot of ire in my direction these days.\u201d<\/p>\n

A former high school and college basketball star, Thune has returned to that sportsman-like mentality in his tenure, viewing himself as \u201cthe coach or the point guard.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cYou distribute the ball to the people that can score it,\u201d he said. During our 30-minute conversation, the black smart watch on his wrist lit up more than once with members calling him.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Several colleagues described him as sticking to the same personality, whether behind closed doors, in their weekly policy luncheons, twisting arms on the Senate floor, or sounding off during \u201cSquawk Box\u201d appearances.<\/p>\n

Senate Majority Whip John Barrasso, R-Wyo., said Thune has done well in a \u201cdemanding position,\u201d adding \u201cin the face of unprecedented Democrat obstruction, a united front matters more than ever.\u201d<\/p>\n

Back when he was campaigning for the role, part of Thune\u2019s pitch was to get the Senate \u201cworking again\u201d and protect its traditions. \u201cDemocrats have tested that proposition a lot this year,\u201d Thune said, leading him to \u201cseize\u201d on the opposing party\u2019s earlier idea to pass executive nominees in tranches to avoid procedural delays. Using \u201creconciliation to fund the government,\u201d as with the bill the president signed last week, was another workaround after Democrats balked at Department of Homeland Security funding amid outrage over the agency\u2019s tactics.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe\u2019re doing things I never thought we\u2019d have to do, but you\u2019ve got to be creative,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

Thune listed several bipartisan bills he\u2019d like to tackle in the remaining weeks of the legislative year, pointing to a crypto package that recently advanced out of committee, a transformative college sports bill backed by the president and a farm bill the House recently passed.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe question is to what level are Democrats going to participate. What\u2019s the appetite in an even-numbered year, where the political overtones tend to take hold?\u201d he asked. \u201cThe Senate is designed to be a non-majoritarian body to give voice to the minority in the country.\u201d<\/p>\n

For Thune, the task now is keeping a steady hand even as one surprise after another comes his way. As he braces for the final stretch before the midterms, the massive windows in his office overlook construction on the National Mall, the humid June sun illuminating preparations for the upcoming Great American State Fair to mark the country\u2019s 250th birthday.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Despite his trying week, Thune still cracks a joke about country singer Martina McBride and other artists dropping out of the 250th concert and the meaning of her song \u201cIndependence Day.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cGot to find joy when you can,\u201d the Republican leader says of his dad-humor. \u201cThere\u2019s not much joy in the job these days.\u201d<\/p>\n

Read more Rogers earmarks money for nonprofits he helped launch<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

John Thune is rubbing his jaw, one of his telltale signs he\u2019s tired. What should\u2019ve been a week of celebration after muscling through his party\u2019s second budget reconciliation package as Senate majority leader \u2014 nearly a year and a half into his tenure \u2014 was instead spent navigating hurdles set by the other end of […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":308,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-309","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-congress"],"yoast_head":"\nInside John Thune\u2019s arithmetic - American Industry Review<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/americanindustryreview.com\/?p=309\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Inside John Thune\u2019s arithmetic - American Industry Review\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"John Thune is rubbing his jaw, one of his telltale signs he\u2019s tired. 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What should\u2019ve been a week of celebration after muscling through his party\u2019s second budget reconciliation package as Senate majority leader \u2014 nearly a year and a half into his tenure \u2014 was instead spent navigating hurdles set by the other end of […]","og_url":"https:\/\/americanindustryreview.com\/?p=309","og_site_name":"American Industry Review","article_published_time":"2026-06-15T21:41:07+00:00","author":"admin","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"admin","Est. reading time":"11 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/americanindustryreview.com\/?p=309#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/americanindustryreview.com\/?p=309"},"author":{"name":"admin","@id":"https:\/\/americanindustryreview.com\/#\/schema\/person\/f31b66192ea99275704b1c4c1195d2bd"},"headline":"Inside John Thune\u2019s arithmetic","datePublished":"2026-06-15T21:41:07+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/americanindustryreview.com\/?p=309"},"wordCount":2217,"commentCount":0,"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/americanindustryreview.com\/?p=309#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/americanindustryreview.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/1749da3cf51e19a552944b85afc21e25.jpg","articleSection":["Congress"],"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"CommentAction","name":"Comment","target":["https:\/\/americanindustryreview.com\/?p=309#respond"]}]},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/americanindustryreview.com\/?p=309","url":"https:\/\/americanindustryreview.com\/?p=309","name":"Inside John Thune\u2019s arithmetic - American Industry Review","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/americanindustryreview.com\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/americanindustryreview.com\/?p=309#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/americanindustryreview.com\/?p=309#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/americanindustryreview.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/1749da3cf51e19a552944b85afc21e25.jpg","datePublished":"2026-06-15T21:41:07+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/americanindustryreview.com\/#\/schema\/person\/f31b66192ea99275704b1c4c1195d2bd"},"breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/americanindustryreview.com\/?p=309#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/americanindustryreview.com\/?p=309"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/americanindustryreview.com\/?p=309#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/americanindustryreview.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/1749da3cf51e19a552944b85afc21e25.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/americanindustryreview.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/1749da3cf51e19a552944b85afc21e25.jpg","width":1620,"height":1080,"caption":"UNITED STATES - MAY 19: Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., conducts a news conference after the Senate luncheons in the U.S. Capitol on Tuesday, May 19, 2026. Sen. Tom Cotton, R-Ark., left, Senate Majority Whip John Barrasso, R-Wyo., and Sen. Shelley Moore Capito, R-W.Va., also appear. 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