{"id":340,"date":"2026-06-17T19:12:10","date_gmt":"2026-06-17T19:12:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/americanindustryreview.com\/?p=340"},"modified":"2026-06-17T19:12:10","modified_gmt":"2026-06-17T19:12:10","slug":"rating-changes-11-house-races-move-toward-democrats","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/americanindustryreview.com\/?p=340","title":{"rendered":"Rating changes: 11 House races move toward Democrats"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

ANALYSIS \u2014 Another month, and another batch of rating changes that benefit Democrats. <\/p>\n

Read more Senate committee approves public land reauthorization fund<\/a><\/p>\n

But the House Republican majority is not lost yet, according to a district-by-district analysis of the House battleground.\u00a0<\/p>\n

With less than five months to go, the fundamentals of midterm elections continue to favor Democrats.\u00a0<\/p>\n

President Donald Trump\u2019s job rating is underwater at 39 percent approve and 58 percent disapprove, according to Nate Silver\u2019s national average.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Democrats lead on the generic congressional ballot 49 percent to 43 percent, according to FiftyPlusOne.\u00a0<\/p>\n

And 70 percent of adults believe the country is off on the wrong track, according to the RealClearPolitics average, at a time when Republicans are in full control of Washington.\u00a0<\/p>\n

There\u2019s been a gradual creep of race rating changes in Democrats\u2019 favor this year, including 16 races in December and another nine in March. Inside Elections recently made rating changes in a dozen more House races, including 11 to a category more favorable to Democrats. <\/p>\n

And yet, even though House Democrats need only a net gain of three seats for control, a Democratic majority is not guaranteed.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

Some of the recent changes came on the fringes of the House battleground.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Ohio\u2019s 7th District (GOP Rep. Max Miller) entered competitive territory, shifting from Solid Republican to Likely Republican, while Pennsylvania\u2019s 17th (Democratic Rep. Chris Deluzio) moved off the battleground, going from Likely Democratic to Solid Democratic. Indiana\u2019s 1st (Democrat Frank J. Mrvan) and Michigan\u2019s 8th (Democrat Kristen McDonald Rivet) moved closer to the edge, from Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic, while Texas\u2019 15th (Republican Monica De La Cruz) and North Carolina\u2019s 11th (Chuck Edwards) moved closer to the core, from Likely Republican to Lean Republican.<\/p>\n

Read more Secret Service disbursements raise questions on ballroom funding<\/a><\/p>\n

There were also a handful of moves at the center of the battleground.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Ohio\u2019s 1st (Democratic Rep. Greg Landsman) and New Jersey\u2019s 7th (Republican Thomas H. Kean Jr.) moved from Toss-up to Tilt Democratic, while Pennsylvania\u2019s 8th (Republican Rob Bresnahan Jr.) and Wisconsin\u2019s 3rd (Republican Derrick Van Orden) shifted from Tilt Republican to Toss-up. Iowa\u2019s 3rd (Republican Zach Nunn) moved from Lean Republican to Tilt Republican, one step away from a Toss-up.\u00a0<\/p>\n

And yet, even with all of those rating shifts, there\u2019s still a certain symmetry to the race for the House. There are 188 seats rated Solid Republican and 182 seats rated Solid Democratic. Of the 65 seats currently rated as competitive (either Likely, Lean, Tilt or Toss-up), Democrats are defending 32 of them while Republicans are defending 33.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Tallying all the seats not rated a Toss-up even puts Republicans slightly closer to a majority. There are 215 seats rated either Solid, Likely, Lean or Tilt Republican compared with 206 seats rated Solid, Likely, Lean or Tilt Democratic. There are 14 Toss-up races.\u00a0<\/p>\n

In past \u201cwave\u201d elections, the battleground has often been disproportionate with one party clearly on defense. But that hasn\u2019t come to fruition yet for House Democrats this cycle, as Republicans have been helped by a series of developments.\u00a0<\/p>\n

A quartet of races shifted toward the GOP when the Virginia Supreme Court invalidated the new Democratic-drawn, voter-approved map in the commonwealth. And the U.S. Supreme Court decision in Louisiana v. Callais led to rating changes in Alabama\u2019s 2nd (represented by Democratic Rep. Shomari Figures) and Louisiana\u2019s 6th (Democrat Cleo Fields) toward the GOP.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

But it\u2019s also important to remember that Democrats don\u2019t need a wave election to win control of the House. Redistricting has made things harder for them, but not impossible.\u00a0<\/p>\n

While it\u2019s possible that Republicans are on the cusp of bucking typical midterm election trends, it\u2019s more likely that this is the calm before the storm. Candidates and both parties will poll extensively over the summer to calibrate their fall messages and campaign strategies.\u00a0<\/p>\n

And that could reveal that the national environment remains problematic for the GOP at the district level and show Democrats better positioned to win House control.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Read more Trump upends Senate path on surveillance authority<\/a><\/p>\n

Here\u2019s a summary of the latest rating changes by Inside Elections:<\/p>\n

Moving in Republicans\u2019 favor<\/strong><\/h2>\n
    \n
  • California\u2019s 6th District<\/strong> (Open, Ami Bera, D, running for 3rd District; Kevin Kiley, I, switched from 3rd to 6th): from Likely Democratic to Lean Democratic.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    Moving in Democrats\u2019 favor<\/strong><\/h2>\n
      \n
    • Indiana\u2019s 1st District<\/strong> (Frank J. Mrvan, D): from Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
        \n
      • Iowa\u2019s 3rd District<\/strong> (Zach Nunn, R): from Lean Republican to Tilt Republican<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
          \n
        • Michigan\u2019s 8th District <\/strong>(Kristen McDonald Rivet, D): from Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
            \n
          • New Jersey\u2019s 7th District<\/strong> (Thomas H. Kean Jr., R): from Toss-up to Tilt Democratic<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
              \n
            • North Carolina\u2019s 11th District<\/strong> (Chuck Edwards, R): from Likely Republican to Lean Republican<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
                \n
              • Ohio\u2019s 1st District<\/strong> (Greg Landsman, D): from Toss-up to Tilt Democratic<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
                  \n
                • Ohio\u2019s 7th District<\/strong> (Max Miller, R): from Solid Republican to Likely Republican<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
                    \n
                  • Pennsylvania\u2019s 8th District<\/strong> (Rob Bresnahan Jr., R): from Tilt Republican to Toss-up<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
                      \n
                    • Pennsylvania\u2019s 17th District<\/strong> (Chris DeLuzio, D): from Likely Democratic to Solid Democratic<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
                        \n
                      • Texas\u2019 15th District<\/strong> (Monica De La Cruz, R): from Likely Republican to Lean Republican<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
                          \n
                        • Wisconsin\u2019s 3rd District<\/strong> (Derrick Van Orden, R): from Tilt Republican to Toss-up<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

                          ANALYSIS \u2014 Another month, and another batch of rating changes that benefit Democrats. But the House Republican majority is not lost yet, according to a district-by-district analysis of the House battleground.  With less than five months to go, the fundamentals of midterm elections continue to favor Democrats.  President Donald Trump\u2019s job rating is underwater at […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":339,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-340","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-campaigns"],"yoast_head":"\nRating changes: 11 House races move toward Democrats - American Industry Review<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/americanindustryreview.com\/?p=340\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Rating changes: 11 House races move toward Democrats - American Industry Review\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"ANALYSIS \u2014 Another month, and another batch of rating changes that benefit Democrats. But the House Republican majority is not lost yet, according to a district-by-district analysis of the House battleground.  With less than five months to go, the fundamentals of midterm elections continue to favor Democrats.  President Donald Trump\u2019s job rating is underwater at […]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/americanindustryreview.com\/?p=340\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"American Industry Review\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-06-17T19:12:10+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"admin\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"admin\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/americanindustryreview.com\\\/?p=340#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/americanindustryreview.com\\\/?p=340\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"admin\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/americanindustryreview.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/f31b66192ea99275704b1c4c1195d2bd\"},\"headline\":\"Rating changes: 11 House races move toward Democrats\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-06-17T19:12:10+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/americanindustryreview.com\\\/?p=340\"},\"wordCount\":877,\"commentCount\":0,\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/americanindustryreview.com\\\/?p=340#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/americanindustryreview.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/06\\\/dcb8f2aa44ff7e3165447d9e1b4ab3ba.jpg\",\"articleSection\":[\"Campaigns\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/americanindustryreview.com\\\/?p=340#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/americanindustryreview.com\\\/?p=340\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/americanindustryreview.com\\\/?p=340\",\"name\":\"Rating changes: 11 House races move toward Democrats - American Industry Review\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/americanindustryreview.com\\\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/americanindustryreview.com\\\/?p=340#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/americanindustryreview.com\\\/?p=340#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/americanindustryreview.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/06\\\/dcb8f2aa44ff7e3165447d9e1b4ab3ba.jpg\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-06-17T19:12:10+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/americanindustryreview.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/f31b66192ea99275704b1c4c1195d2bd\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/americanindustryreview.com\\\/?p=340#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/americanindustryreview.com\\\/?p=340\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/americanindustryreview.com\\\/?p=340#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/americanindustryreview.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/06\\\/dcb8f2aa44ff7e3165447d9e1b4ab3ba.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/americanindustryreview.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/06\\\/dcb8f2aa44ff7e3165447d9e1b4ab3ba.jpg\",\"width\":1200,\"height\":800,\"caption\":\"UNITED STATES - MAY 15: Rep. 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But the House Republican majority is not lost yet, according to a district-by-district analysis of the House battleground.  With less than five months to go, the fundamentals of midterm elections continue to favor Democrats.  President Donald Trump\u2019s job rating is underwater at […]","og_url":"https:\/\/americanindustryreview.com\/?p=340","og_site_name":"American Industry Review","article_published_time":"2026-06-17T19:12:10+00:00","author":"admin","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"admin","Est. reading time":"4 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/americanindustryreview.com\/?p=340#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/americanindustryreview.com\/?p=340"},"author":{"name":"admin","@id":"https:\/\/americanindustryreview.com\/#\/schema\/person\/f31b66192ea99275704b1c4c1195d2bd"},"headline":"Rating changes: 11 House races move toward Democrats","datePublished":"2026-06-17T19:12:10+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/americanindustryreview.com\/?p=340"},"wordCount":877,"commentCount":0,"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/americanindustryreview.com\/?p=340#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/americanindustryreview.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/dcb8f2aa44ff7e3165447d9e1b4ab3ba.jpg","articleSection":["Campaigns"],"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"CommentAction","name":"Comment","target":["https:\/\/americanindustryreview.com\/?p=340#respond"]}]},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/americanindustryreview.com\/?p=340","url":"https:\/\/americanindustryreview.com\/?p=340","name":"Rating changes: 11 House races move toward Democrats - American Industry Review","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/americanindustryreview.com\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/americanindustryreview.com\/?p=340#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/americanindustryreview.com\/?p=340#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/americanindustryreview.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/dcb8f2aa44ff7e3165447d9e1b4ab3ba.jpg","datePublished":"2026-06-17T19:12:10+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/americanindustryreview.com\/#\/schema\/person\/f31b66192ea99275704b1c4c1195d2bd"},"breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/americanindustryreview.com\/?p=340#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/americanindustryreview.com\/?p=340"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/americanindustryreview.com\/?p=340#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/americanindustryreview.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/dcb8f2aa44ff7e3165447d9e1b4ab3ba.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/americanindustryreview.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/dcb8f2aa44ff7e3165447d9e1b4ab3ba.jpg","width":1200,"height":800,"caption":"UNITED STATES - MAY 15: Rep. 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