{"id":48,"date":"2026-05-24T20:09:30","date_gmt":"2026-05-24T20:09:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/americanindustryreview.com\/?p=48"},"modified":"2026-05-24T20:09:30","modified_gmt":"2026-05-24T20:09:30","slug":"will-the-house-ban-staff-from-prediction-markets-these-members-arent-waiting","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/americanindustryreview.com\/?p=48","title":{"rendered":"Will the House ban staff from prediction markets? These members aren\u2019t waiting"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

As the House faces growing calls to ban trading on prediction markets by members and staff, some are taking things into their own hands.<\/p>\n

Read more The 10 most vulnerable House members, less than 6 months from Election Day<\/a><\/p>\n

When Rep. Seth Moulton, D-Mass., announced a new internal policy for his office in March, he described it as a way to make a stand as platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket become a \u201cplayground for corrupt insiders.\u201d<\/p>\n

Now others are following suit, hoping to clean up Congress\u2019 image and feeling the pressure as the House lags behind the Senate, which adopted a chamber-wide rule change at the end of April.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s absolutely insane that members and staff can place bets off of inside information,\u201d Rep. Seth Magaziner, D-R.I., said. \u201cThis is public service, right? People shouldn\u2019t be treating it like a piggy bank.\u201d<\/p>\n

Magaziner is another member who has formalized a prediction market policy in his office. Others on the growing list include Reps. Ashley Hinson, R-Iowa, and Eugene Vindman, D-Va.<\/p>\n

All those lawmakers say they want to see a larger shift in the House to make sure no one is leveraging their job to rake in prediction market profits. Until then, they are starting in their own domains. In the decentralized workplace that is Capitol Hill, lawmakers have wide leeway to set norms and expectations for their staff \u2014 and announcing an internal policy is easy enough.<\/p>\n

Magaziner, for example, issued a press release this month saying he was implementing a new office-wide policy to prohibit him and his staff \u201cfrom participating in prediction markets or wagering related to political, legislative, regulatory, geopolitical, or other outcomes connected to information learned in an official capacity.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n

That roughly mirrors the change Moulton announced this spring, which he called a step toward \u201cclean, honest government\u201d in the face of a \u201cperverse incentive structure\u201d that allows prediction market users to toy with the outcomes of elections, wars and more.<\/p>\n

\u2018Shady behavior\u2019<\/h2>\n

Even if many more House members were to jump on the trend and create their own policies, it might not make a dent.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Several staffers, requesting anonymity to speak freely, said prediction market trading on the Hill wasn\u2019t yet rampant and doubted their bosses, at least, had ever logged on to platforms like Kalshi.<\/p>\n

But as prediction markets surge in popularity, a drumbeat of dubious trades \u2014 like ones made right before key White House moves on tariffs or the Iran war \u2014 have raised fears about officials across the government abusing their knowledge.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Read more Appropriators approve Legislative Branch spending bill with GAO cuts<\/a><\/p>\n

And writing an internal office policy, even if violating it could lead to getting fired, is not the same as adopting a broader House rule change or passing a law.<\/p>\n

Some in the House said they don\u2019t want to fall behind the usually slow-moving Senate, which has already changed its standing rules. The resolution adopted in April, led by Sen. Bernie Moreno, R-Ohio, amounts to a blanket ban for senators and their staff, prohibiting them from entering into any \u201cagreement, contract, swap, or transaction that provides for any purchase, sale, payment, or delivery of an excluded commodity \u2026 that is dependent on the occurrence, nonoccurrence, or the extent of the occurrence of a specific event or contingency.\u201d<\/p>\n

Hinson said she has adopted a similar internal ban in her own office but doesn\u2019t want to stop there. She has introduced a resolution that aims to change the rules of the House.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhat I don\u2019t want to see is that because Congress is lacking action here, that this is a loophole that people were able to take advantage of,\u201d she said at the time.<\/p>\n

On Wednesday, House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-La., said he had talked with House Administration Chair Bryan Steil, R-Wis., about the Senate rule change and is eyeing something even more forceful.<\/p>\n

\u201cThey did theirs in the rules, so we\u2019re looking at doing ours in law,\u201d Scalise said, suggesting that one possibility would be to fold a prediction market provision into a broader bill aimed at curbing congressional stock trading.<\/p>\n

Republicans advanced a stock trading bill out of committee months ago but it has yet to hit the House floor. Unlike a simple resolution, that bill would have to pass both chambers and be signed by the president, making it a heavier lift. And any effort to stop lawmakers from buying stocks provokes strong feelings in Congress, where many members hold substantial portfolios.<\/p>\n

Some, like Vindman, have more ideas. He has an internal office policy in place limiting prediction market participation for his staff, but he wants to see a broader law that would ban it for both members of Congress and their immediate family members. He introduced a proposal along those lines last week.<\/p>\n

He and others are also looking outside the legislative branch, urging action to limit prediction market trades by officials in other parts of the government. Such trading \u201cundermines public trust, endangers America\u2019s national security, and enables the kind of shady behavior the American people have grown sick of,\u201d he said in a statement.\u00a0<\/p>\n

FiscalNote, the parent company of CQ and Roll Call, has announced a product expansion into political prediction markets.<\/p>\n

Read more Judge weighs in on lawmaker cost-of-living case<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

As the House faces growing calls to ban trading on prediction markets by members and staff, some are taking things into their own hands. When Rep. Seth Moulton, D-Mass., announced a new internal policy for his office in March, he described it as a way to make a stand as platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":47,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-congress"],"yoast_head":"\nWill the House ban staff from prediction markets? 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