{"id":730,"date":"2026-07-28T19:10:12","date_gmt":"2026-07-28T19:10:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/americanindustryreview.com\/?p=730"},"modified":"2026-07-28T19:10:12","modified_gmt":"2026-07-28T19:10:12","slug":"4-gubernatorial-races-that-could-affect-the-house-majority","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/americanindustryreview.com\/?p=730","title":{"rendered":"4 gubernatorial races that could affect the House majority"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

ANALYSIS \u2014 Four years ago, Republicans complained that Pennsylvania gubernatorial nominee Doug Mastriano torpedoed their downballot efforts in key House races across the commonwealth.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Read more Matt Dunlap says he\u2019d welcome DCCC support in battleground Maine district<\/a><\/p>\n

This time around, GOP nominee Stacy Garrity isn\u2019t polling any better, again complicating House Republican campaigns in the Keystone State. And Pennsylvania is just one of a quartet of governors races \u2014 the others are Wisconsin, Iowa and Colorado \u2014 that could have an impact on the fight for the House.\u00a0<\/p>\n

There\u2019s a case to be made for including Arizona, Michigan and Ohio, where competitive gubernatorial races overlap with the House battleground. But the margins in those contests aren\u2019t likely to be overwhelming or extraordinary. And in blue states such as New York and California, Democrats are hoping their nominees perform better compared with 2022, boosting their prospects down ballot.<\/p>\n

But for four states, in particular, the race for governor could have broader implications.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Pennsylvania<\/strong><\/h2>\n

In 2022, Mastriano, a state senator, won the GOP primary with help from Donald Trump and in the face of a Republican party establishment concerned he would become a general election headache. Those concerns were well-founded as he went on to lose to Democrat Josh Shapiro, the commonwealth\u2019s attorney general at the time, by 15 points.\u00a0<\/p>\n

That margin likely limited House GOP takeover opportunities considering Democratic Reps. Susan Wild (7th District) and Matt Cartwright (8th District) each won reelection by just 2 points. Vulnerable Democratic Rep. Chris DeLuzio won by 6 points in the 17th District.<\/p>\n

This cycle, it\u2019s all about defense for Republicans. Reps. Ryan Mackenzie (7th District), Rob Bresnahan Jr. (8th District), Scott Perry (10th District) and Brian Fitzpatrick (1st District) are all vulnerable to some extent, and there\u2019s no guarantee that the top of the ticket will be stronger compared with four years ago.\u00a0<\/p>\n

While GOP strategists believe that Garrity doesn\u2019t have the same baggage as Mastriano and that she\u2019ll run an actual campaign, she might not end up any stronger. In four polls from June and July, Garrity\u2019s best share of the vote was 40 percent (compared with the 42 percent Mastriano secured in 2022). And she trailed Shapiro by 13, 15, 14 and 17 points in those surveys \u2014 not too different from Mastriano\u2019s losing margin in 2022.<\/p>\n

And let\u2019s not forget, statewide offices are listed ahead of House races on Pennsylvania\u2019s ballots.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Wisconsin<\/strong><\/h2>\n

On the other side of the ledger, Republicans are excited about the race for governor in Wisconsin, where statewide offices are also first on the ballot.<\/p>\n

The GOP optimism is rooted in Democrats potentially nominating state Rep. Francesa Hong in their Aug. 11 primary and the belief that self-described democratic socialist can\u2019t win a swing state in a general election against the likely GOP nominee, Rep. Tom Tiffany.\u00a0<\/p>\n

It\u2019s been a wild ride in the Democratic primary after one of the top contenders, Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez, dropped out of the race following reports of financial mismanagement by her campaign manager. Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley reentered the race, this time with the blessing of outgoing Gov. Tom Evers, and 2022 Senate nominee and former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes is running as well, so there\u2019s no guarantee Hong will be the nominee.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

Even though Wisconsin sent unabashed liberal Russ Feingold to the Senate for nearly two decades, having Hong at the top of the ticket could complicate Democrats\u2019 plans to unseat Rep. Derrick Van Orden in the battleground 3rd District. That\u2019s where Democrat Rebecca Cooke is trying to reverse her 2024 loss to the Republican in a race Inside Elections rates a Toss-up. A Hong primary win\u00a0would also probably end Democrats\u2019 long-shot chances of knocking off Rep. Bryan Steil in the 1st District.<\/p>\n

Read more No quick fix for sexual misconduct in the House<\/a><\/p>\n

Iowa<\/strong><\/h2>\n

There\u2019s something in the water this cycle in Iowa, which has largely favored Republicans over the past decade but now has competitive races up and down the ballot.\u00a0<\/p>\n

In Trump\u2019s first midterm election, in 2018, the state\u2019s House delegation flipped from three Republicans and one Democrat to three Democrats and one Republican. Abby Finkenauer defeated Rep. Rod Blum in the 1st District, Dave Loebsack won reelection in the 2nd, and Cindy Axne unseated Rep. David Young in the 3rd. That happened as Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds was winning a full term by nearly 3 points over Democrat Fred Hubbell.\u00a0<\/p>\n

This time around, the political conditions appear to be worse for Republicans. Not only is there an unpopular Republican president in the White House, but state Auditor Rob Sand is within striking distance of becoming the first Democrat to win the governorship in 20 years. (If the election were held today, he\u2019d likely win.) And Democrats have a chance at the Senate seat as well with state Rep. Josh Turek and GOP Rep. Ashley Hinson battling to succeed retiring Republican Joni Ernst.<\/p>\n

Democrats also have a chance to shift the House delegation from its current 4-0 GOP advantage to a 3-1 Democratic edge. Inside Elections rates the race for the 1st District (between GOP Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks and Democrat Christina Bohannan) as a Toss-up. The 3rd District (Rep. Zach Nunn against Democrat Sarah Trone Garriott) is rated Tilt Republican. And the 2nd District (Hinson\u2019s open seat, where Democrat Lindsay James faces Republican Joe Mitchell) is rated Likely Republican.<\/p>\n

Federal races are listed first on Iowa\u2019s ballots, but Sand\u2019s strong, well-funded candidacy is contributing to Republicans\u2019 headaches in the state. And it could help deliver multiple House districts to Democrats in November.<\/p>\n

Colorado<\/strong><\/h2>\n

In Colorado, GOP strategists are having flashbacks to 2022, when Democratic Gov. Jared Polis defeated Republican Heidi Ganahl by 20 points. That made it easier for Democrat Yadira Caraveo to win the new and competitive 8th District by less than 1 point over Republican Barbara Kirkmeyer (Polis carried the 8th by 9 points).<\/p>\n

This cycle, there\u2019s an unpopular GOP president and Republicans are at risk of getting walloped in the governor\u2019s race. While Democrats nominated state Attorney General Phil Weiser in somewhat of an upset over Sen. Michael Bennet, the GOP got behind ministry leader Victor Marx over Kirkmeyer. In one of the strangest interviews in recent political memory, Marx could not or would not tell local politics reporter Kyle Clark how many people he had killed as an adult or rescued on his missions.<\/p>\n

One Republican consultant, who requested anonymity to be candid, tried to see a silver lining.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cMy hope is that the fait accompli nature of the gubernatorial race might actually help. It\u2019s viewed as an irrelevant race, a done deal,\u201d said the consultant, also noting that federal races are listed first on the ballot. \u201cIt might not drive turnout and environment to the extent a highly contested race would. But Marx has Republicans in Colorado very nervous.\u201d<\/p>\n

That concern stems from at least one highly competitive House race that Republicans probably need to win to hold their majority: the 8th District, where GOP Rep. Gabe Evans is in a Toss-up race against Democrat Manny Rutinel. But if the cycle spirals out of control against Republicans, things could get uncomfortable for Reps. Jeff Hurd (3rd District), Jeff Crank (5th District) and even Lauren Boebert (4th District).\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cAre there enough voters in Colorado willing to split their ticket?\u201d the Colorado consultant pondered. \u201cWe\u2019re about to find out.\u201d<\/p>\n

Read more How Trump\u2019s political director came to Congress<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

ANALYSIS \u2014 Four years ago, Republicans complained that Pennsylvania gubernatorial nominee Doug Mastriano torpedoed their downballot efforts in key House races across the commonwealth.\u00a0 This time around, GOP nominee Stacy Garrity isn\u2019t polling any better, again complicating House Republican campaigns in the Keystone State. And Pennsylvania is just one of a quartet of governors races […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":729,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-730","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-campaigns"],"yoast_head":"\n4 gubernatorial races that could affect the House majority - American Industry Review<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/americanindustryreview.com\/?p=730\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"4 gubernatorial races that could affect the House majority - American Industry Review\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"ANALYSIS \u2014 Four years ago, Republicans complained that Pennsylvania gubernatorial nominee Doug Mastriano torpedoed their downballot efforts in key House races across the commonwealth.\u00a0 This time around, GOP nominee Stacy Garrity isn\u2019t polling any better, again complicating House Republican campaigns in the Keystone State. 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