At the Races: Republicans on the ropes
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Read more Proposals to lower health costs get broad support in battlegrounds
By Mary Ellen McIntire and Daniela Altimari
A handful of House Democrats and two House Republicans have lost their bids for renomination this year, and two more GOP lawmakers are looking to avoid that fate next month.
In Tennessee, Rep. Andy Ogles faces a challenge from dairy farmer Charlie Hatcher, the former state agriculture commissioner, in an Aug. 6 contest that will test the incumbent’s MAGA bona fides against his challenger’s establishment pull.
Ogles has been dogged by controversy since he was first elected to the 5th District in 2022. He’s been accused of embellishing his résumé and faces an ethics investigation into his campaign finances. He also drew criticism from some Republicans this year for saying that “homosexuality has no place in America.”
Ogles held off a better-funded primary opponent two years ago, but Hatcher appears to have momentum, picking up an endorsement this month from former Gov. Bill Haslam while also outraising Ogles, who reported $58,000 on hand as of July 17 compared with Hatcher’s $105,000.
Outside groups have come in to support both candidates. The Freedom Caucus Fund has spent $666,000 to boost Ogles and oppose Hatcher as of Thursday. But the Invest in Tomorrow Coalition PAC, a group of clean energy investors, has dropped $1.3 million on pro-Hatcher ads and says it plans to spend a total of $2 million.
The clean energy group released polling Thursday that found Hatcher trailing Ogles, 37 percent to 33 percent, within the margin of error, with nearly a third of voters still undecided.
President Donald Trump, whose endorsement remains potent in GOP primaries, held a telerally for Ogles this week. Trump would have carried Ogles’ district by 23 points in 2024 under new lines approved by state Republicans this spring. But the redrawn seat includes new territory, where Ogles has had to introduce himself to voters. Democrats still see it as a pickup opportunity, with Columbia Mayor Chaz Molder, who has proved to be a strong fundraiser, poised to win the nomination next week.
Meanwhile, Florida Republican Cory Mills, who is reportedly under investigation by the Justice Department as well as subject to a House Ethics inquiry, also faces a tough primary challenge. Mills ended June with just $81,000 in the bank, while his leading Republican opponent, former news anchor Ryan Elijah, had $286,000.
Florida Politics reported Thursday that Elijah released his first TV ad, touting his support from two county sheriffs.
Democrats also see the 7th District as a pickup opportunity, with the DCCC adding former NASA Chief of Staff Bale Dalton to its “Red to Blue” program for strong challengers last month.
Starting gate
#MESEN: Maine Democrats picked Troy Jackson to replace Graham Platner as their Senate nominee at a party convention last weekend, resetting what’s expected to be one of the most competitive Senate races this fall. Jackson supporters at the Bangor gathering said he was well positioned to carry forward Platner’s populist message that had resonated with voters across the state.
#ME02: Maine Auditor Matt Dunlap insists he’s in a competitive race to succeed retiring Democratic Rep. Jared Golden this year, but the House Democratic campaign arm still hasn’t added him to its “Red to Blue” program. The 2nd District, which Trump carried in all three of his elections, is considered a top pickup opportunity for Republicans.
#GA13: The special election for Georgia’s 13th District is heading to a second round after no candidate took a majority of the vote in Tuesday’s all-party primary. Marcye Scott, who is looking to succeed her late father, Rep. David Scott, in the suburban Atlanta seat, will face fellow Democrat Everton Blair, a former former Gwinnett County school board chair, in the Aug. 25 runoff, our colleague Nick Eskow reports.
Next on the calendar: Michigan voters will decide their midterm nominees Tuesday, including in a handful of contests that pit the Democratic Party’s moderate wing against its progressive flank. The Senate primary between Rep. Haley Stevens and former public health official Abdul El-Sayed will set up a major fall race against Republican former Rep. Mike Rogers. Democrats are also watching whether progressive William Lawrence emerges as the nominee in the battleground 7th District, where two other candidates could split the moderate vote.
Still a long way to go: North Carolina Democrat Roy Cooper has broad name recognition and his Senate campaign is flush with cash. But in a state that voted for Trump three times and hasn’t elected a Democrat to the Senate in nearly two decades, the pivotal race in the purple state between Cooper and former RNC Chairman Michael Whatley is likely to tighten considerably, say campaign strategists on both sides.
Indie bands: The Democratic Senate nominee in Idaho has dropped out of the race, leaving an independent candidate as the main challenger to the Republican incumbent, Sen. Jim Risch. The move follows a playbook used by Democrats in Nebraska and Alaska, but in other ruby-red states, the strategy is proving less successful.
Dems’ affordability message: The DCCC released a digital ad last weekend focused on affordability to mark 100 days until the midterm elections. The ad coincided with House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries’ visit Sunday to Pennsylvania’s 7th District to campaign with Democratic nominee Bob Brooks and Gov. Josh Shapiro, touting an affordability-themed message.
Steeped in politics: Rep. Brian Jack has a pretty extensive résumé for a freshman. The Georgia Republican, who leads the NRCC’s candidate recruitment effort, discussed his journey from congressional intern to Trump’s political director with Roll Call’s Jackie Wang.
Health care on the ballot: Proposals to expand access to health care are proving popular with voters in battleground districts, according to new polling from the University of Maryland. Even voters historically resistant to government playing an active role in health care are growing more accepting of the idea, Steven Kull, the director of the Program for Public Consultation at the University of Maryland, told Roll Call’s Lia DeGroot.
ICYMI
#WIGOV: Former Wisconsin Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes is dropping his Democratic bid for governor, saying in a video posted to social media Thursday that “it’s become very clear who our nominee is going to be.” That appeared to be a nod to state Rep. Francesca Hong, a democratic socialist who enjoys a clear lead in recent polling of the Democratic primary. Barnes’ name will remain on the ballot.
Rhoden prevails: South Dakota Gov. Larry Rhoden, who succeeded Kristi Noem after she left to become Homeland Security secretary, won the GOP nomination for a full term Tuesday, easily defeating businessman Toby Doeden in a runoff. Rhoden is the overwhelming favorite to defeat Democratic former state Sen. Dan Ahlers in November.
Endorsements: Four House Democrats are backing colleague Seth Moulton’s primary challenge to Sen. Edward J. Markey in Massachusetts: New York’s Pat Ryan, Pennsylvania’s Chrissy Houlahan, Rhode Island’s Seth Magaziner and California’s Derek Tran. Meanwhile, Maggie’s List, which backs conservative women, has endorsed Sen. Darline Graham in South Carolina’s upcoming special election primary. Also getting the group’s backing are House hopefuls Jenny Costa Honeycutt, who is seeking to succeed Rep. Nancy Mace in South Carolina, and María Rodriguez, who is challenging Democrat Morgan McGarvey in Kentucky’s 3rd District.
Senate map: Senate Democrats’ campaign arm has announced a $40 million investment across 10 battleground states to fund field staff, training programs and offices and infrastructure, as well as outreach to key voter groups. DSCC executive director Devan Barber said the investment is “critical” to “allow us to continue to lay the groundwork to reach and build relationships with voters that will be critical to Democrats winning in 2026.” Meanwhile, the NRSC dropped five ads in the Senate battlegrounds of New Hampshire, Iowa and Ohio, taking advantage of the loosened restrictions on campaigns coordinating with party committees.
More Red to Blue: The DCCC named five additional candidates to its “Red to Blue” program this week, including former Arizona state Rep. Amish Shah, who defeated the committee’s preferred candidate in a battleground district primary last week. The other candidates are smokejumper Sam Forstag in Montana’s 1st District, state Rep. Lindsay Price in Iowa’s 2nd, former high school principal Pia Dandiya in Florida’s open 22nd and math teacher Jake Johnson in Minnesota’s 1st.
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#COGOV: Former Colorado Rep. Greg Lopez, who briefly served as a Republican after Rep. Ken Buck’s resignation, has qualified for November’s gubernatorial ballot as an unaffiliated candidate. Lopez, who left the GOP primary for governor in January, will face Democratic nominee Phil Weiser and Republican pastor Victor Marx.
Midterm millions? Tech billionaire Elon Musk is resurrecting his political operation, Axios reports, with plans to revive America PAC to turn out Republican voters in this year’s elections.
Third party threat: The Pennsylvania Green Party is warning that candidates it hasn’t actually endorsed are petitioning to get on the ballot in key House races in the commonwealth, Punchbowl News reports.
Nathan’s notes
Gubernatorial races in several states this fall could have implications in the fight for the House, with four in particular standing out, Roll Call elections analyst Nathan L. Gonzales of Inside Elections writes.
What we’re reading
Faith-based attacks: The Des Moines Register published a pair of stories about how Democrat Sarah Trone Garriott’s faith is shaping a battleground race in Iowa. Trone Garriott, a Lutheran minister challenging Republican Rep. Zach Nunn, “is encountering a steady drumbeat of attacks from the right over how she expresses her faith and what it signals about how she would govern.”
#HimToo? An investigation by CNN’s KFile finds that Troy Jackson, who replaced scandal–plagued Graham Platner as the Democratic Senate nominee in Maine, once used an anonymous online account to disparage Republicans, including former Gov. Paul LePage, now a candidate for the House.
The man behind the mask: The Atlantic profiles Maryland Gov. Wes Moore, whose national profile as a possible 2028 presidential contender is rising at the same time as he battles with one of the state’s largest news organizations and faces questions about his biography.
In her voice: The New York Times examines why Rep. Haley Stevens’s quintessentially Michigan accent has become an issue in her race for Senate.
Man bites dog: A Republican group in a key California swing district is facing backlash after endorsing a Democrat. The Madera Young Republicans’ decision to back Democratic Rep. Adam Gray in the 13th District over former Stockton Mayor Kevin Lincoln, Gray’s Trump-endorsed GOP challenger, could cost the group its official standing, SFGate reports.
The count: $3.1 million
That’s, collectively as of June 30, how much money sits in the federal campaign committees of Republicans who’ve officially filed for South Carolina’s Aug. 11 special primary election to replace the late Sen. Lindsey Graham on the November ballot.
Former Gov. and Rep. Mark Sanford leads the pack, with about $1.4 million banked, followed by Rep. Russell Fry with just over $1 million.
Mark Lynch, the Greenville businessman who finished second to Graham in the June 9 regularly scheduled primary, entered July with nearly $600,000 remaining from his largely self-funded challenge.
Rounding out that list is Rep. Ralph Norman, who finished third in the gubernatorial primary, with $90,000, and former Myrtle Beach Mayor Mark McBride, whose termination report from a failed 2022 House campaign showed a cash balance of nearly $3,000. Two other candidates who previously sought congressional office, attorney Duke Buckner and former Virginia resident Glenda Gail Parker, appear to be starting with nothing in the bank.
Rounding out the list are engineer Samuel Shepherd and Darline Graham, the late senator’s sister, who was appointed to serve out his remaining tenure. While the appointment didn’t come with her brother’s $2.3 million war chest, Graham does have Trump’s “complete and total endorsement” in her quest for a full six-year term.
– By Roll Call’s Ryan Kelly
Key race: #WA04
Candidates: Republican Rep. Dan Newhouse’s decision not to seek a seventh term in Washington state’s reddest district prompted a crowd of candidates to vie for the seat. The three leading Republican contenders are Yakima County Commissioner Amanda McKinney, state Sen. Matt Boehnke and Navy veteran and former NASCAR driver Jerrold Sessler, who lost to Newhouse in 2024. Air Force veteran John Duresky is the lone Democrat competing in Tuesday’s all-party primary.
Why it matters: House seats seen as safe for either party don’t open up often, and whichever Republican wins in November could represent the district for years.
Cash dash: McKinney is the fundraising leader, bringing in $981,000 since entering the race, and she had $215,000 in the bank as of July 15. Sessler reported raising nearly $700,000 and had $68,000 for the final campaign stretch. Boehnke and Duresky brought in $212,000 and $179,000, respectively.
Backers: Sessler won Trump’s backing for his 2024 run against Newhouse, one of only two House Republicans still in office who voted to impeach the president over the Jan. 6, 2021 attack on the Capitol. This time, though, it’s McKinney who enjoys the president’s “complete and total endorsement.” She’s also supported by the Winning for Women Action Fund, Speaker Mike Johnson and other House GOP leaders. Boehnke is backed by former Rep. Doc Hastings, who held the seat from 1995 to 2015.
What they’re saying: McKinney is pitching herself as a small-government conservative and has highlighted her advocacy for farmers as a county commissioner. Boehnke, the ranking member on a legislative committee overseeing energy and technology, calls himself a “common sense” leader, telling the Washington State Standard earlier this year that he is focused on listening to people, not “looking for clicks on social media.” Sessler has embraced a socially conservative platform, speaking out against “gender ideology” and critical race theory. As a Democrat running in a right-leaning district, Duresky has staked out a lane as a political outsider and a moderate who has criticized the Democratic establishment and can appeal to Republicans who have soured on Trump.
Terrain: The J-shaped district reaches across the middle of the state, from Oregon to the Canadian border and includes the Yakima Valley, an agriculture-rich region that produces most of the nation’s apples, along with stone fruit, grapes and other crops. Inside Elections rates the race Solid Republican. Trump carried the district by 21 points in 2024.
Wild card: Washington state holds nonpartisan primaries, with the top two finishers, regardless of party, moving on to the general election ballot. In 2024, Sessler finished first, ahead of Newhouse, in the primary, but thanks to the support of Democrats and unaffiliated voters, the incumbent won the November matchup. This year, the 11-way primary field includes several underfunded Republicans and independents, including former software engineer Devin Pooré, who received the nomination of the Cascade Party, a centrist political organization founded by former Nirvana bassist Krist Novoselić. In a low-turnout primary, the large field could shape the outcome, which likely won’t be known until after election night because the state votes primarily by mail.
Coming up
Primary season continues with five states voting Tuesday: Michigan, Missouri, Virginia, Kansas and Washington state. Two territories are voting Saturday, with primaries in the U.S. Virgin Islands and Guam.
Photo finish
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